Takeaways from Zonda’s 2026 Build-to-Rent Conference

April 13-14, 2026 — We took a timely deep dive into the BTR sector at Zonda’s 2026 Build-to-Rent Conference in Phoenix. Thank you to Siobhan O’Kane, Kimberly Byrum, and the Zonda team for a productive two days. We enjoyed moderating a panel on Capital Solutions in a challenging market. While many in the sector are waiting for legislative certainty, the “bold” are already moving.

1. Certainty is preferable to today’s policy ambiguity. While some investors continue to break ground on new projects, most instituional capital remains on the sidelines awaiting legislative clarity. In the interim, family offices and private groups with more flexibility are driving the majority of transaction volume. Institutional capital is expected to reengage more meaningfully when, or if, policy direction becomes clearer, though the relative attractiveness of BTR yields versus other asset classes currently was cited as an ongoing headwind.

2. Smaller project sizes are favored in today’s environment. Shorter lease-up duration reduces market risk exposure. Projects with differentiated product or amenity offerings, particularly those located near employment centers and retail, are seeing stronger performance.

3. Demand remains healthy. Rental traffic is strong year-to-date, supported by both necessity-driven and lifestyle renters continue absorbing excess home supply. While rent concessions remain prevalent, they may have peaked in many markets, suggesting a path toward NOI improvement over the next several years. This positive inflection point will attract more investor interest once the legislation environment improves.

4. Supply has peaked, setting up a more constructive medium-term backdrop. Following a surge in deliveries over the past two years, new BTR completions are expected to decline meaningfully in 2026 and into 2027. While elevated supply of both new rental homes and multifamily apartments has pressured occupancy and driven concessions, we’re recovering from the bottom as absorption improves and concessions abate.

5. Fortune favors the bold. With limited new BTR and multifamily supply expected from 2028 to 2030, operators able to break ground on new projects today will likely deliver into a less competitive market with sustained demand.