Key Takeaways from IMN’s Build-to-Rent Fall Conference
Whelan Advisory just wrapped up two productive days at the IMN BTR Conference in Dallas, connecting with build-to-rent (BTR) and multifamily (MF) developers, operators, and capital providers.
Our key takeaway: 2027 will be the year to deliver BTR and MF units. The rental market is still absorbing a wave of new supply in 2025, putting downward pressure on rents. By 2026, concessions should moderate, and rents stabilize, setting the stage for recovery in 2027. Investors and developers capable of making deals pencil today will be rewarded by the dearth of new residential rental product entering the market in 2027 and 2028.
‘The bottom was six months ago.’ Project and capital related conversations have shifted compared to six months ago. There have been few distressed deals, and not many anticipated, as equity holders plan to restructure and retain existing inventory until conditions improve. We noted several new entrants to the BTR sector at the conference – including sophisticated builders, MF operators, and capital providers – all educating themselves on the BTR space.
The market today is ‘meh’ (thanks David Beznos). Equity investors remain cautious, waiting for higher rents, lower interest rates, or reduced construction costs before re-engaging. We do, however, see more investors willing to dip a toe back into the rental market. Deals with additional, accretive components (e.g., tax breaks, multiple products to accelerate absorption, etc.) are moving forward, and debt financing remains highly active.
Public builder partnerships are important today and in the long term to ensure supply of rental homes. While local BTR developers remain active, most new supply will come from large homebuilders with significant economies of scale and less dependence on institutional capital cycles.
‘Secondary markets are outperforming primary markets.’ Columbus, Ohio and other secondary markets were repeatedly mentioned as bright spots in today’s rental market. Relatively speaking, limited new supply growth in 2023-2025, coupled with steady demand, has led to more stable rents and NOI performance compared to many larger, oversupplied markets.
