Capital Games: Fun and Fundamentals

Smart money is on home builder growth for the foreseeable future. Find out why by reading my latest article for BUILDER magazine.

This year’s spring selling season is off to a strong start, with price and pace improving almost universally across markets, product types and price points. The momentum is encouraging, as it marks the third year of this housing recovery, after a couple of false starts, and feels sustainable this time despite mortgage rates that are moving higher. Most industry observers have revised their forecasts upwards, and believe this cycle is still in its first half. They are forecasting at least three more years of unit growth as millennial buyers have finally emerged and are contributing to demand, and further pricing power is expected on a national basis.

As often happens, the home builder stocks anticipated the recovery, up 30+% since early November, while valuations are still reasonable relative to historical norms.

Margaret Whelan